Table 1 Key characteristics of the patient population and overview of the settings of the current situation and the 2030 scenarios

Number of community-dwelling elderly with ≥4 chronic diseases^a

860,741

1,420,369 (3.18% annual increase^e)

1,420,369

1,420,369

1,420,369

Total number of urinary incontinence cases in population (prevalent/ incident)

215,185/ 55,087

355,092/90,904

355,092/90,904

355,092/90,904

355,092/90,904

% of the population annually admitted to a nursing home

4% ^f

4%

4%

4%

2.95%

Number of patient-years ¥

914,598

1,512,157

1,512,157

1,512,157

1,526,030

Formal home care (covered by insurance)

(annual: 2% reduction of users, and 1% increase of # hours)

(annual: 2% reduction of users, and 1% increase of # hours)

(annual: 1% increase of # of hours)

 % users

47%^b

47%

34.7%

34.7%

47%

 # hours per week

6.4 h^g

6.4 h

7.4 h

7.4 h

7.4 h

Reduction in home care in improved/ success cases

10%/ 25% of number of hours (=0.64/ 1.6 h)^c

0.64/ 1.6 h

0.64/ 1.6 h

0.64/ 1.6 h

0.64/ 1.6 h

Informal care (time of partner/ family/ friends)

(annual: 2% increase of users and 1% increase of # hours)

(annual: 2% increase of users and 1% increase of # hours)

 % users

43%^d

43%

57.9%

43%

57.9%

 # hours per week

12 h ^d

12 h

13.9 h

12 h

13.9 h

Reduction in informal care in improved/ success cases

10%/ 25% of number of hours (=1.2/ 3 h)^c

1.2/ 3 h

1.2/ 3 h

0.8/ 2 h

0.8/ 2 h

 % users

n/a

n/a

n/a

15.6%

15.6%

 # hours per week

n/a

n/a

n/a

4.2 h

4.2 h

Reduction in private care in improved/ success cases

n/a

n/a

n/a

0.4/ 1 h

0.4/ 1 h